LGBTQ+ politics

there is a version of election night where i spend four hours learning the precise shape of a county in Iowa and find out tomorrow morning that Washington voted on whether a middle-schooler needs a doctor to verify her sex to play soccer. the county will still be shaped like that tomorrow. i’d like to give the kid a tab of her own.

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one point in Iowa is a very small point

Nationally, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by 8.1 points in Call the Map’s Election Day polling average, which includes polls through November 2. That question asks which party people favor for Congress. Nobody gets to check a bubble marked “generic Democrat, please distribute evenly across 435 districts.” National polling average.

Look at the final New York Times/Siena surveys, released November 1. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers 53% to 42%. In Iowa, Josh Turek led Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%. Siena puts the sampling margin for an individual Iowa estimate at ±4.7 points. If your takeaway from those two headlines is simply “Democrats lead,” you have misplaced a fairly important ten points. Siena toplines and sampling details.

Average several pollsters and Michigan looks closer. Silver Bulletin’s final average puts it at D+4.9, with Iowa still just D+1.1. A few points of polling error in the same direction across several states can change who gets to run the Senate. That’s the tab i’ll be refreshing. November 3 polling averages.

what 53 seats means depends on who’s counting

Sabato’s Crystal Ball made a call in every race on November 2. Add up the seats its editors rated at least leaning Democratic and you get 239 House seats, 53 Senate seats, and 28 governorships. A seat their editors barely favor counts once, just like a seat they’re sure about. Final ratings and maps.

Crosstab’s November 3 model also put 53–47 at the center of its Senate forecast, but gave Democrats a 75% chance of controlling the chamber, compared with 91% in the House. A Republican Senate still shows up about once in four simulations. If that’s the combination we get, the model already had a chair set out for it. The graphics above are pre-election snapshots. Crosstab forecast.

LGBTQ+ watch · who gets a seat, who gets a marriage license

New Hampshire, U.S. Senate. Rep. Chris Pappas faces former Sen. John E. Sununu for Jeanne Shaheen’s open seat. Pappas could become the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate. The seat is already held by a Democrat, which means a result that would be historic for gay men could look entirely uneventful on a party-control map. Same color. Quite a different evening. AP’s New Hampshire race guide.

Three House races worth a tab. In Indiana’s 5th, JD Ford, the first openly gay member of the state legislature, is challenging Victoria Spartz. In New York’s 17th, Army veteran Cait Conley is challenging Mike Lawler. In Arizona’s 6th, former Marine drill instructor JoAnna Mendoza is challenging Juan Ciscomani. All three are out LGBTQ+ candidates running for Republican-held seats. LGBTQ+ Victory Fund’s candidate rundown.

Virginia, Question 2. Same-sex couples can already marry in Virginia. A yes would remove the state constitution’s unenforceable ban and replace it with an affirmative right for two adults to marry regardless of sex, gender, or race. A no leaves the dormant ban in the text. That’s a hell of a sentence to leave lying around about somebody’s husband. Official explanation and amendment text.

trans rights watch · read what the yes would do

Delaware, U.S. House. Sarah McBride, the first openly trans member of Congress, is seeking a second term against Republican Joe Arminio. Read the local race guide and you’ll find McBride talking about the cost of living. She has constituents who need groceries, a fact you could miss entirely from the national coverage of which bathroom she uses. WHYY’s Delaware voter guide.

Washington · IL26-638. A yes would bar trans girls from certain girls’ K–12 interschool competitions and require any student seeking to participate in those events to get a health care provider’s statement verifying sex. That means a girl whose eligibility nobody ever questioned would also need the paperwork. Somewhere between a pair of cleats and the first practice, the state would like another signature. Washington legislative summary.

Colorado · Propositions 134 and 135. Two separate votes. A yes on 134 would set statewide sex-based eligibility rules for school and college sports, including intramurals. A yes on 135 would prohibit specified transition-related surgeries for minors and bar public funding and insurance coverage for those surgeries. Its scope is surgery. Colorado’s official Blue Book.

Arizona · Proposition 318. A yes would expand sex-based team restrictions to more private schools and restrict access to school private spaces, including restrooms, by sex recorded at birth. Nebraska · Initiative 442. A yes would write sex-based restrictions for girls’ and women’s school sports into the state constitution. Arizona voter pamphlet · Nebraska ballot guide.

Missouri · Amendment 3. One oval does double duty. A yes would repeal the reproductive-rights amendment voters approved in 2024 and constitutionally prohibit gender-transition procedures for minors. A no keeps the 2024 amendment in place. You don’t get to split your answer between the two questions the legislature bundled together. Missouri’s official ballot language.

When the first network calls control of a chamber tonight, i’ll want to know. I’ll also want to know whether a girl in Washington needs to make a second appointment before she can make the team. There’s room on the screen for both. More down-ballot races from Hitch.

the sticker table

Take one on the way out. Each character opens as a transparent PNG.

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Credits. Polling graphic from Silver Bulletin’s final averages, ratings graphic from Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Both charts, and all mascot illustrations by taco ’bout it.